The Browns blew a double-digit lead in the final two minutes of their game against the Jets, while the Steelers barely moved the ball all day against the Patriots. Each of these teams is looking to get back in the win column and jump, at least momentarily, into first place in the division, and hopefully build some kind of foundation to make a playoff run. Which of them will return to their victories? We’ll find out soon enough. Before we break down the match, here’s how you can watch tonight’s contest.
How to watch
When the Steelers have the ball
Pittsburgh’s offense is in big trouble. Through two games, the Steelers have gained just 510 yards, 30th in the NFL. On a per-game basis, they actually rank 31st. He’s 26th in points per drive, 29th in Tru Media’s EPA per game and 22nd in Football Outsiders’ offensive DVOA. Most of the issues start along the offensive line, where things are pretty dire. They just can’t generate any momentum in the game. They have one of the league’s highest first down percentages (50 percent) and in those games are averaging just 2.9 yards per rush. Despite facing eight-man boxes on only 18 percent of drives, the Steelers are averaging just 1.30 yards before contact per attempt. In plays where Najee Harris was the carrier (as opposed to Mitchell Trubisky, Jaylen Warren or Chase Claypool), that number is even worse — just 0.44 per attempt. But Harris, who dealt with a Lisfranc injury during training camp and re-injured his foot in Week 1, just doesn’t look healthy. Among the 44 players with at least 15 rushing attempts this season, he ranks 32nd in tackles avoided and 31st in yards after contact per attempt. Last season, he ranked seventh in tackle percentage and 21st in yards after contact among the 53 players with 100 or more carries. The Browns have only yielded 3.77 yards per rush so far this season and a ridiculous 0.33 before contact. The idea of the Steelers rushing this game, given the way things have gone so far this year, seems rather far-fetched. And that leaves the game in Trubisky’s hands, which is … not great. Trubisky is 42 of 71 (59.2 percent) for 362 yards (5.2 per attempt), two touchdowns and one interception so far this season. That’s despite a below-average pressure rate (28 percent) and one of the lowest blitz rates in the league (20 percent). He was thrown into a tight window on 22.5 percent of his passes, according to NFL.com’s Next Gen Stats, and was off target on his throws 16.7 percent of the time, according to Tru Media. He hasn’t been able to find a connection with explosive rookie George Pickens, who has been on the field for 78 percent of the team’s offensive snaps but has been targeted just five times. His numbers with other players aren’t much better: Claypool has eight receptions for just 44 yards on 12 targets. Diontae Johnson has a game-low 8.6 yards per reception. Pat Freiermuth’s catch percentage drops to 52.9% (down from 75.9 a year ago). This situation is not easy for offense and there is no reason to expect it to improve anytime soon. Pickett’s time is coming, maybe as soon as tonight if Trubisky struggles. With a mini-bye before the team’s Week 4 game against the Jets, there’s probably no better opportunity to make the transition. If Trubisky (or Pickett) can find a way to try to push the ball down the field, there might actually be some opportunities available. Cleveland has allowed more completions on punts of 20-plus yards than any team in the NFL except the Jaguars, despite playing against Baker Mayfield and Joe Flacco. However, getting the ball downfield requires time in the pocket, and the more time in the pocket, the more opportunities for the defense to generate pressure. Cleveland ranks seventh in the NFL in rushing rate so far this season, with Myles Garrett leading the way. Trubisky is very susceptible to pressure and would rather get rid of the ball quickly and in close quarters than take his chances with rushers in his face. For those reasons, he seems much more likely to continue to aim under shots, and thus create few – if any – explosive plays.
When the Browns have the ball
As expected, the Browns ran the ball early and often, and with great success. The Nick Chubb/Kareem Hunt duo is one of the NFL’s best and has powered the Browns to 5.28 yards per carry despite facing the second-highest percentage of eight-man boxes in the NFL (33 percent of carries, per Tru Media). They have an NFL-best 12 runs of 15 yards or more, good for a league-leading 15.8 percent share of their total runs. The ability to create explosiveness in the run game is especially important because the passing game is currently a more possession-based, chain-moving unit with Jacoby Brissett under center. Pittsburgh has done a pretty good job against the run so far this season, but they’ve also played against two relatively weak offensive lines (Cincinnati, New England) compared to the one they’ll face against Cleveland on Thursday night. Without TJ Watt, the Steelers may be more susceptible to the ground attack than they’ve been, now that they’re tasked with dealing with one of the league’s best run-blocking units. Of course, the Steelers are no slouch up front — even without Watt. They still bring Cameron Heyward, Tyson Alualu, Larry Ogunjobi, Chris Wormley, Alex Highsmith and even Malik Reed to the table. They can still chase the quarterback and throw him on the ground or simply keep him closed in the pocket where he will have to face a lot of pressure. The Browns will certainly look to get Jacoby Brissett moving with play-action and bootleg concepts, with the only big downfield perimeter they currently have being Amari Cooper. David Djoku, an elite athlete, has seen his rate skyrocket after a big contract this offseason, but he has yet to participate significantly more in the broadcast game. It’s tempting to say this would be a good week to finally help him, but he might have to deal with Minkah Fitzpatrick’s spotlight for much of the night. Fitzpatrick is off to a terrific start to the season with two interceptions in as many weeks and covers as much of the back end of the field as any safety in football. Any Brissett pass in the deep half of the field is likely to be picked off if it is off target. In the end, this game seems likely to come down to a matter of confidence in which offense can have any measure of success moving the ball. Given the relative strength of Cleveland’s game compared to any aspect of Pittsburgh’s offense, that’s the way to lean. Prediction: Browns 20, Steelers 13
