The Russian military is divided over how best to deal with unexpected projections on the Ukrainian battlefield this month, according to multiple sources familiar with US intelligence, as Moscow has found itself on the defensive in both the east and the south.
Russian President Vladimir Putin himself directs generals in the field, two sources familiar with U.S. and Western intelligence said — a highly unusual management tactic in a modern military that these sources said hints at the dysfunctional command structure that plagues the Russia’s war from the beginning.
Secret services have caught Russian officers arguing with each other and complaining to friends and family back home about decision-making from Moscow, one of those sources told CNN.
And there are significant differences in strategy with military leaders struggling to agree on where to focus their efforts to shore up the defense lines, multiple sources familiar with US intelligence said.
Putin’s “unusual” habit with generals is not typical of a modern army
The Russian Defense Ministry claimed it was redeploying forces to Kharkiv in the northeast – where Ukraine has made the most dramatic gains – but US and Western sources say the bulk of Russian troops still remain in the south, where Ukraine has also launched offensive operations. around Kherson.
Putin announced a partial mobilization on Wednesday that is expected to include the call-up of up to 300,000 reservists. He has resisted that step for months, and Biden administration officials said Wednesday that the fact that he did it now underscores the severity of Russia’s manpower shortage and signals a growing desperation.
It is unclear whether the mobilization will make any operational difference on the battlefield or simply prolong the war without changing the outcome, according to Russian military analysts.
Graphic shows percentage of people leaving Russia after news of Putin’s partial mobilization
And as Russia falls on the battlefield, officials in Moscow are scrambling to assign blame for Russia’s sudden change in fortunes, a senior NATO official said.
“Kremlin officials and state media pundits are feverishly discussing the reasons for the failure in Kharkiv, and in typical fashion, the Kremlin appears to be trying to deflect blame away from Putin and onto the Russian military,” this person said.
Already, there has been a reshuffling of the military leadership in response to battlefield failures – leaving Russia’s command structure even more confused than before, sources say. The commander who oversaw the majority of units around the Kharkiv region had only been in the post for 15 days and has now been relieved of his duties, the NATO official said.
Russia has sent “a small number” of troops into eastern Ukraine — some of whom had fled amid advances on the Ukrainian battlefield last week, according to two U.S. defense officials — in an effort to shore up weakened defenses of lines.
But even if Russia is able to coalesce around a plan, U.S. and Western officials believe Russia is limited in its ability to mount a strategic response to Ukraine’s counteroffensive operations that in recent days, sources say, have moved the dynamics in favor of Kiev. Even after the partial mobilization was announced, officials are skeptical that Russia is able to quickly deploy large numbers of troops to Ukraine given ongoing problems with supply lines, communications and morale.
The “small scale” of the Russian redeployment is a sign of its inability to conduct serious operations, the senior defense official told CNN.
So far, Russia has responded to Ukraine’s advances by launching attacks against critical infrastructure such as dams and power plants — attacks that the U.S. considers mostly “revenge” attacks rather than operationally significant attacks, this person said.
Absent more manpower, which it simply does not currently have, sources said Russia has few other options to punish or repel Ukrainian forces. Putin is “struggling,” National Security Council strategic communications coordinator John Kirby said in an appearance on CNN on Wednesday. The Russian military has “poor unit cohesion, desertions in the ranks, soldiers who don’t want to fight,” Kirby said.
“He has terrible morale, unit cohesion on the battlefield, command and control has yet to be resolved. He has desertion issues and forces the injured back into the game. So clearly, manpower is an issue for him,” Kirby said. “It feels like it’s on the back foot, particularly in this northeastern region of Donbass.”
Putin’s mobilization order is significant because it is an immediate admission that Moscow’s “special military operation” was not working and needed to be adjusted, military analysts said.
But for now, there are more questions than answers about its exact operational impact. It is the first such order issued in Russia since World War II, giving military analysts limited modern data on which to base their predictions.
Even if Moscow can increase its troop numbers — both by preventing existing treaty members from leaving the service and by mobilizing reservists — it will struggle to train, equip and integrate those troops into existing units, Michael said. Kofman, director of Russian Studies. Program at the Center for Naval Analysis. And even if that solves some short-term staffing problems, it likely won’t be high-quality hires, Kofman and others noted.
Even in the best-case scenario, Moscow will also need some time to deploy new troops.
“I think it’s fair to say that partial mobilization probably won’t be reflected on the battlefield for several months at the earliest, and could expand Russia’s ability to sustain this war, but not change its outcome,” said Coffman.
Russia’s longstanding failures in planning, communications and logistics were compounded by punishing casualties during its retreat from Kharkiv, the sources said. Russia left behind “a lot” of equipment in its retreat, according to NATO official. And at least one two-story unit, from the First Guards Tank Army, has been “decimated,” this person said.
“With its northern axis collapsed, this will make it harder for Russian forces to slow down the Ukrainian advance, as well as provide cover for retreating Russian troops,” the official said. “We believe it will also seriously damage Russia’s plans to take over the entire Donbass.”
The wildcard remains, as always, the Russian President. Putin on Wednesday once again threatened to use nuclear weapons, a threat US officials have said they take “seriously” but have seen no immediate indication that he plans to follow through.
Pro-Russian authorities in some of Ukraine’s occupied eastern regions have also announced their intention to hold political referendums on joining Russia, a maneuver some analysts say Russia could use as a pretext for military action.
But the senior NATO official said, “Overall, Russia is now on the defensive. Ukraine has the initiative, forcing Russia to take stalling measures simply to avoid further losses.”
“If Ukraine manages to undertake sustained defense operations, this could further undermine the viability of Russian defenses,” this person said.
