Results from the 2021 census published on Thursday showed that 45.7% of residents are Catholic or from a Catholic background compared to 43.48% of Protestant or other Christian backgrounds. The 2011 census figures were 45% Catholic and 48% Protestant. No block is a majority. The demographic tilt was expected, but it will still deal a psychological blow to unionists, who for decades relied on a supposedly impregnable Protestant majority to preserve Northern Ireland’s place in the United Kingdom. Diarmaid Ferriter, historian and author, said: “It’s been a long time coming. They have already witnessed the loss of their political supremacy. Seeing the loss of their numerical superiority is another blow.” Higher birth rates among Catholics gradually closed the gap, a closely watched metric, as they tended to identify as Irish while Protestants as British. But religious background and political identity no longer automatically carry over into voting patterns, Ferriter said. “So much is a blur now.” In recent elections, support for nationalist and unionist parties rose to 40% on each side, leaving in the middle 20% of voters who are non-aligned and reject traditional sectarian labels. Polls consistently show that more people prefer staying in the UK – citing taxes and the NHS, among other things – than union with Ireland. However. the census, the first since Brexit, showed a loosening of British identity. Some 31.86% identified as British only, 29.13% as Irish only and 19.78% as Northern Irish only. In 2011 the figures were 40% British only, 25% Irish only and 21% Northern Irish only. The census, published by the Statistics and Research Agency of Northern Ireland, also showed Northern Ireland with its highest population at 1.9 million people, a 5% increase on 2011. It is ageing, with the number of over-65s years to increase by almost 25%. The data on religious background – a stark contrast to the state’s founding in 1921, when Britain carved out six counties from the rest of Ireland to create an entity with a two-thirds Protestant majority – comes at a difficult time for unionism . The post-Brexit Irish Sea border has put up trade barriers between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. In May’s assembly election, Sinn Fein overtook the Democratic Unionist Party as Northern Ireland’s largest party, bolstering its calls for a referendum on Irish unity. Duncan Morrow, professor of politics at the University of Ulster, said: “The state was created to put a protective ring around Protestants. You can’t take away the symbolic importance of this change.” Archie Bland and Nimo Omer take you to the top stories and what they mean, free every weekday morning Privacy Notice: Newsletters may contain information about charities, online advertising and content sponsored by external parties. For more information, see our Privacy Policy. We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and Google’s Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. In a referendum, Northern Ireland’s fate may rest with centrist voters who defy easy political categorization, with many feeling Northern Irish as opposed to Irish or British, Morrow said. Young people were more vocal about Irish unity, he added. “It’s a ticking clock.” Patricia McBride, a spokeswoman for Ireland’s Future, a group promoting a border poll, said religious background and national identity would not necessarily determine how people would vote. Taxation, public services and other bread-and-butter issues could be decisive, he added. “People are much more likely to question whether they are financially better off or not. It’s not as simple as voting with the heart, people will also vote with the head,” he said.
