Emanuele Perrone | News Getty Images | Getty Images Italy’s voters head to the polls on Sunday in a snap general election that is likely to see a government led by a far-right party in power, marking a huge political shift for a country already facing ongoing economic and political instability. Polls before September 9 (when a blackout period began) showed a right-wing coalition easily winning a majority of seats in the reduced lower and upper houses of parliament. The coalition is led by Giorgia Meloni’s far-right Fratelli d’Italia (Brothers of Italy) and includes three other right-wing parties: Lega, under Matteo Salvini, Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia and a smaller coalition partner, Noi Moderati. The Brothers of Italy party stands out from the crowd and is expected to win the largest share of the vote for a single party. It has been seen taking close to 25% of the vote, according to pollster Politiche 2022, well ahead of its closest right-wing ally Lega, which is expected to take around 12% of the vote. Giorgia Meloni, leader of the right-wing Fratelli d’Italia (Brothers of Italy) party holds a giant Italian national flag during a political rally on February 24, 2018 in Milan, Italy. Emanuele Cremaschi Getty Images On the centre-left, the Democratic Party led by former prime minister Enrico Letta looks set to win around 21%, and its coalition partners (Green and Left Alliance, More Europe and Civic Engagement) are all expected to win very low single-digit shares of the vote. The snap election comes after Prime Minister Mario Draghi resigned in July after failing to unite a fractured political coalition behind his economic policies.
Who are the “Brothers of Italy?”
An election victory by Fratelli d’Italia could see the party’s leader, Giorgia Meloni, become Italy’s first female prime minister. She would also be the first far-right leader since Benito Mussolini came to power in Italy a hundred years ago. Carlo Ciccioli, president of Fratelli d’Italia in the Le Marche region of eastern Italy, told CNBC that the party’s meteoric rise in popularity had “spread to the rest of Italy” and that the party is ready to govern. “Right now, we are likely to be the biggest party in the country — which can only be confirmed by Sunday’s vote, not polls. Why do I think Fratelli d’Italia will succeed? Because our leadership is a Giorgia Meloni is prepared both culturally and politically,” she told CNBC’s Joumanna Bercetche. The Fratelli d’Italia party was formed in 2012, but has its roots in Italy’s 20th-century neo-fascist movement that emerged after the death of fascist leader Mussolini in 1945. After several iterations, a group including Giorgia Meloni split from Berlusconi’s People of Freedom (or PdL) party to launch Fratelli d’Italia. His name appears in the first words of Italy’s national anthem. The party has grown in popularity since then and has now overtaken the populist Lega party, having shaken sections of the public concerned about immigration (Italy is the destination of many migrant boats crossing the Mediterranean), the country’s relationship with the EU and economy. Analysts say another reason for the party’s popularity was its decision not to join Draghi’s recent broad-based coalition. That set Meloni out “as an outsider within the political system and gaining more media exposure as the only opposition,” Teneo Risk Consulting Co-Chair Wolfango Piccoli said in a recent note.
Roots and politics
In terms of politics, Fratelli d’Italia has often been described as “neo-fascist” or “post-fascist”, with its policies echoing the nationalist, nativist and anti-immigrant stance of Fascist-era Italy. For her part, however, Meloni claims to have rid the party of fascist elements, saying in the summer that the Italian right “has consigned fascism to history for decades now.” However, its policies are at least socially conservative, with the party opposing same-sex marriage and promoting traditional “family values,” with Meloni saying in 2019 that her mission was to defend “God, country and family”. On Europe, Fratelli d’Italia has reversed its opposition to the euro, but supports EU reform to make it less bureaucratic and less influential in domestic politics. Her plan is encapsulated in one of her slogans: “A Europe that does less, but does it better.” On the economic front, he has deferred to the centre-right coalition’s position that the next government should cut sales taxes on some goods to ease the cost-of-living crisis and said Italy should renegotiate its recovery capital of Covid with the EU. Fratelli d’Italia has been pro-NATO and pro-Ukraine and supports sanctions against Russia, unlike the Lega which is ambivalent about these measures. However, the party has also been friendly to one of its main EU rivals, Hungarian President Viktor Orban, supporting the strongman following a European Parliament resolution that decided Hungary could no longer be defined as a democracy. Center-left politicians fear relations with the rest of Europe would change under a Meloni-led government. Enrico Letta, the head of the Democratic Party, told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick that Italy had two choices when it came to Europe — to remain at the top of economies and governance, or to “relegate.” “[The] first choice is to maintain our position in the “first class”. First Division means Brussels and Germany, France, Spain, the big European countries, the founders, like us.[The]second option is to be relegated to the second division with Poland and Hungary, deciding to stay with them against Brussels, against Berlin, against Paris and Madrid,” he said during Ambrosetti’s economic forum in the authorities September. “I think it would be a disaster for Italy to choose the second division,” he said. Meloni has been described as something of a political chameleon by some, with analysts noting changes in her political stance over time. “There is a question about which Meloni will lead the government: the one who praised Hungary’s Viktor Orbán or the one who supported Mario Draghi’s anti-Russian stance?” Teneo’s Wolfgang Piccoli said in a note earlier in September. “The sovereign who called for Italy’s exit from the euro or the appeasing leader who during the election campaign embraced a more conventional line towards Europe? The populist who promoted the idea of a naval blockade in the Mediterranean to stop the illegal influx of migrants .. or the most responsible conservative politician who spoke about a European solution to the issue?”, he said. This being Italy (a country that has infamously had 69 governments since World War II), some instability and turmoil are expected after the vote, mainly because divisions between the FdI, Lega and Forza Italia that make up the right alliance. “Salvini and Silvio Berlusconi will be difficult coalition partners, desperate to regain visibility after a (potential) polling day disaster, highlighting policy differences including issues such as fiscal discipline, pensions and Russia sanctions . Policy differences and personal rivalries will come to the fore immediately after the vote, causing turmoil and undermining the effectiveness of the new executive,” Piccoli added.
