Europe is drawing up plans to hit Russia with fresh sanctions amid calls for a swift response after Vladimir Putin threatened to use nuclear weapons in his war against Ukraine. The Russian dictator announced a major escalation on Wednesday, including the mobilization of 300,000 Russian reservists and a warning that he would use “all resources” at his disposal to win. “This is not a bluff,” Putin said. Condemnation among the Western allies was immediate. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called Putin’s plan a sign of “desperation”, while French President Emmanuel Macron said the Russian leader was making “a new mistake”. Speaking at the United Nations in New York, US President Joe Biden said Putin’s threats should “make your blood run cold”. “Well, Putin is showing his weakness now, because what you see is that he is planning to mobilize personnel who are less trained, less experienced, less motivated. And he wants to start a referendum on sovereign territory of Ukraine,” the president of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen told CNN in an interview on Wednesday. “I think that calls for re-sanctions on our part.” Behind the scenes in Brussels, European Commission officials were already quietly working on proposals for a new package of sanctions against Moscow. Wednesday’s intervention by Putin reinforced calls for new measures. “Putin wants us to be afraid, he wants us to fragment our unity as we think about nuclear,” said Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Reinsalu. “The most important thing is to communicate by doing. We must immediately increase arms aid to Ukraine. We must immediately increase the sanctions.” Four diplomats said the European Commission is ready to share the sanctions plan with EU countries from Friday. The measures under consideration include a cap on the price of Russian oil, as proposed by the G7, the registration of more people linked to the Kremlin and a new crackdown on luxury goods trade with Russia. Putin’s war has flagged in recent weeks after a Ukrainian counteroffensive proved surprisingly effective. Armed with precision weapons from Western allies, Ukrainian forces have regained swathes of territory in the north of the country. That left Putin facing humiliation, and Western allies believe that prompted his decision to escalate in Wednesday’s speech.
The response from the Western military leadership was a show of collective calm. Biden’s National Security Council spokesman said there is no need to change policy yet. A Western European diplomat put it this way: “Mobilization is a sign of weakness. I do not expect a qualitative change in the Western response. we will continue to support Ukraine.” “This speech was designed to have an impact that it shouldn’t have,” said Latvian Defense Minister Artis Pabriks. “Nothing should change in the Western response,” he told POLITICO in a phone interview, adding that support for Ukraine must continue. Military analysts agreed: “I don’t think it will and I don’t think it should change support for Ukraine,” said Charly Salonius-Pasternak, a senior researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.

No change

The officials pointed out that Russia’s messages do not necessarily reflect reality. “So far we have not seen any change in the nuclear posture, in the nuclear readiness,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told Reuters. The effort to mobilize Russia, according to the NATO leader, “will take time.” It remains unclear, however, whether Putin’s speech will affect the types of weapons systems Western allies are willing to hand over to Ukraine. “I still think there will be some reluctance — with the Ukrainian military doing as well as it is now — to escalate,” said Seth G. Jones, director of the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. There will probably be a willingness to continue providing weapons, training, intelligence “for the foreseeable future,” according to Jones. However, he said, “it is not clear at this time to what extent NATO countries will be willing to provide more advanced types of weapon systems.” Ryan Heath, Clea Caulcutt and Suzanne Lynch contributed reporting from New York. Leonie Kijewski and Stuart Lau contributed reporting from Brussels. CORRECTION: An earlier version of this article was incorrect when Vladimir Putin announced a partial mobilization of Russia’s reserves. This happened on Wednesday. This article is part of POLITICO Pro The one-stop solution for policy professionals who combine the depth of POLITICO journalism with the power of technology Exclusively breaking scoops and ideas Customized policy information platform A high-level public affairs network