The upcoming votes, which will not be free and fair, and would be illegal under Ukrainian and international law, will set the stage for Russia to formally absorb Ukrainian territory. Russian President Vladimir Putin has voiced his support for rigged votes and on Wednesday declared a partial military mobilization of up to 300,000 reservists. The announcements signal a renewed willingness by Putin to escalate the seven-month war after he lost significant ground to Ukrainian counter-offensives in northeastern Ukraine. Western officials called them a hoax. In a speech to the UN General Assembly on Wednesday, President Biden accused Russia of “extremely significant” violations of the UN Charter. And analysts warn that annexing the territories could allow Moscow to label Ukrainian attacks in those areas as attacks against Russia itself, raising the threat of a retaliatory nuclear strike. Here’s what we know about Russia’s annexation plans and their implications for Ukraine and its allies. Russia is moving towards annexing parts of Ukraine in a major escalation

What do we know about Russia’s plans to hold referendums in Ukrainian regions? In near-synchronized announcements, officials in the self-proclaimed “republics” of Luhansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine and the occupied Kherson region in the south said on Tuesday they would hold “referendums” from September 23 to September 27 on membership. Russia. A staggered vote will also be held on the same dates in areas of Zaporizhia controlled by Russian forces — including Enerhodar, home to Ukraine’s largest nuclear power plant. Area held from Russia- supported separatists before Feb. 2022 Annexed by Russia in 2014 Control areas from September 21 Sources: Institute for the Study of War, AEI’s Critical Threats Project Ukrainian reclaimed area through counterattacks Area held from Russia- supported separatists before Feb. 2022 Annexed by Russia in 2014 Control areas from September 21 Sources: Institute for the Study of War, AEI’s Critical Threats Project Ukrainian reclaimed area through counterattacks Area held from Russia- supported separatists before Feb. 2022 Annexed by Russia in 2014 Control areas from September 21 Sources: Institute for the Study of War In total, the Russian-held areas due to hold staggered votes this month make up nearly 15 percent of Ukraine’s total territory, according to the Institute for the Study of War. The Russian occupation authorities have been saying for months that they would hold such votes. But the plans accelerated after Ukraine’s military victories this month. Separatist officials in eastern Ukraine called on Monday for urgent measures to allow Moscow to immediately annex the territory. Moscow recognized the separatist enclaves as independent before the invasion in February, and Russian-backed authorities have already taken administrative steps – including switching to the Russian ruble and handing out Russian passports – to bring residents of occupied Ukraine closer to Russia. Annexation would formalize Moscow’s control. The United States warned in July that Russia was taking steps to annex parts of Ukraine and that Moscow’s plan would likely include what it called “sham” votes. “Russia is starting to put out a version of what you might call an annexation book,” White House spokesman John Kirby said at a press conference. That playbook had been perfected in Crimea, which Russia invaded and illegally annexed in 2014. The Black Sea peninsula was part of independent Ukraine for more than two decades. It’s unclear exactly how staggered voting would work. Denis Pushilin, the pro-Moscow leader of Donetsk, told Russian state news agency RIA Novosti that election officials would go door-to-door and people would also be able to vote in designated “public spaces”. On the last day, residents will be able to vote at polling stations. The result, however, is predetermined. If the organized referendum in Crimea is any indication, the vote will be held under armed guard or pressure from pro-Russian officials, without credible international observers. The entire process will be under the control of the Russian government and the occupation forces. The official result in Crimea in 2014: 97 percent of voters reportedly supported joining Russia.

What is Moscow’s strategy? The rapid mobilization of Russian-backed officials around the annexation comes after Ukrainian counter-offensives retook large swathes of territory in northeastern Ukraine seized by Russian forces early in the war. The “referendum” plans revealed this week appear to signal a “new phase of the war,” said Natalia Savelieva, a fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis. “They are signs that the Russian regime is not very comfortable.” Hardliners in Russia have demanded a tougher approach to the war and cheered calls this week for annexation. Russia’s military control over the territories it has seized is unstable, and the sham referendums are seen as a political tool to achieve the military goal of securing Moscow’s sovereignty. The idea is to create the pretense of popular support to justify further military action, Savelieva said. For Putin and his supporters, the appearance of legal decision-making authority remains important. Some analysts raised the alarm that the planned referendums showed Putin was willing to take an escalating course. Tatiana Stanovaya, an analyst at political consultancy R.Politik, said in a Telegram post that the upcoming votes were “preparation for a full-scale war” and annexation, “an unequivocal ultimatum from Russia to Ukraine and the West: Either Ukraine retreats or nuclear war”. In a not-so-veiled reference to Russia’s nuclear arsenal, Putin threatened on Wednesday to “use all the means at our disposal” to protect what he calls Russian territory. “This is no bluff,” he said. {Sigh} It’s finally here. As I wrote, referendums on the annexation of Ukrainian territory to Russia. They have been laying this groundwork for months. Today it comes with tougher penalties for desertion and refusals. Here are thoughts on what’s next (1/) https://t.co/zVNrNRnUqQ — Dara Massicot (@MassDara) September 20, 2022

How did Ukraine and allies react? Ukraine and Western countries have not recognized the annexation of Crimea and do not intend to recognize any absorption of other illegally annexed territories into Russia. “Russia was and remains an aggressor illegally occupying parts of Ukrainian land,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba tweeted. The country’s NATO allies, meanwhile, have denounced Russia’s apparent annexation and mobilization plans as escalating. “The United States will never recognize Russia’s claims of so-called annexed territory,” White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Tuesday. US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink called the announced measures “signs of weakness”. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg denounced the planned referendums as illegal and called for increased support for Ukraine. The European Union has threatened consequences for Russia. The Kremlin’s moves coincide with the convergence of world leaders for the annual general debate of the UN General Assembly in New York. At his opening meeting on Tuesday, French President Emmanuel Macron said Russia “must see that it cannot impose its will militarily”, even if “there are sham referendums in territories that have been bombed and continue to be occupied”. Biden decried Russia’s moves on Wednesday. It remains to be seen what additional support — military or otherwise — countries might offer Ukraine. National security officials in the Biden administration said last month that the United States would continue to support the Ukrainian military if it tried to retake territory illegally annexed by Russia. Biden, meanwhile, warned Putin over the weekend against using a nuclear weapon. “Do not. Don’t do it. Don’t do it,” he told the CBS news show “60 Minutes.” “It would change the face of warfare unlike anything since World War II.” Referendums are unlikely to slow down Ukraine’s military agenda. “There are strong incentives for Ukraine to continue attacking that territory,” said Dara Massicot, senior policy researcher at the Rand Corp. “The Russian military is at its weakest point right now.” Robyn Dixon in Riga, Latvia, Karoun Demirjian in Washington, DC, Emily Rauhala in Brussels and Annabelle Timsit in London contributed to this report.

War in Ukraine: What you need to know

The last: Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a “partial mobilization” of troops in an address to the nation on September 21, describing the move as an effort to defend Russian sovereignty against a West that seeks to use Ukraine as a tool to “divide and destroy Russia. .” Follow our live updates here. The battle: A successful Ukrainian counteroffensive forced a large Russian retreat in the northeastern region of Kharkiv in recent days, as troops abandoned towns and villages they had seized since the first days of the war and abandoned large amounts of military equipment. Annexation Referendums: Gradual referendums, which will…