China and India, major economic and military powers, have so far avoided condemning Moscow for the conflict and have actually weakened international sanctions by buying Russian oil at a discount. Their change of stance was hailed by the West as an extremely damaging erosion of support that could lead the Kremlin to accept that a military victory was no longer possible and seek a ceasefire. President Putin was calm in his response to the restrictions at a summit in Uzbekistan, telling Prime Minister Modi that “we will do our best to stop this [the war] as soon as possible’ and address ‘the concerns you express’. He told President Xi that he understood your “questions and concerns” about the war. On Tuesday, Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Putin was seeking an end to the conflict and that an “important step” was on the horizon to achieve that. The Turkish president said Putin “actually shows me that he is willing to end this as soon as possible… because the way things are going right now is quite problematic.” Twenty-four hours later, Putin had ordered a partial mobilization or reserve for his “special military operation” with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu adding that 300,000 Russians with combat experience would now be called up to fight. Putin has also used some of the most inflammatory words to date since sending his troops into Ukraine, raising the prospect of nuclear strikes. “If the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, for Russia and for our people, we will use all the means at our disposal,” he said. “This is no bluff… Those who try to blackmail us with nuclear weapons should know that the prevailing winds can turn in their direction.” Putin and his supporters blame the West for playing the nuclear card for Ukraine. But the threats of nuclear strikes all came from hawks in Moscow. The latest was from Margarita Simoyan, editor-in-chief of state broadcaster RT, who said: “Judging by what is happening and what is going to happen, this week marks either the threshold of our imminent victory or the threshold of a nuclear war. I can’t see any third option.” By “what’s going to happen”, Ms Simoyan was referring to the situation on the ground, the sweeping gains made in the current Ukrainian offensive, the Russian reversals which President Erdogan has described as “problematic”. The pace of the advance and the collapse, in places, of the Russian lines has surprised everyone, including the Ukrainians. Not only did they capture key Russian military strongholds in the northeast, but also settlements in the Donbass. As Mr Putin announced the partial mobilization, the Kremlin also announced that referendums would be held in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson. Undoubtedly, annexation to Russia will follow. However, some of the fighting is now near the border of the separatist republics of Luhansk and Donetsk, which have been controlled by Russia since the 2014 war. Mr Putin had said a key aim of the military operation was to control – “reunify” – parts of Donbas in Ukrainian hands. About half of the territory is now held by Moscow, including cities such as Severodonetsk and Lysihansk. But now there is a real possibility that the Ukrainians will not only take back those places, but retake land that Russia seized in 2014. This is the type of humiliation that would be unthinkable for Russia. Mr Putin has backed himself into a corner. It is breaking out and another layer of uncertainty and risk has been added to the Ukraine war with implications for Europe and beyond.
