#CheckTheLink-ageWaivers | True SOS (APA — Wednesday update) Fantasy Football 101 (starts, sits, trades, more) Podcast — with video!
2022 Week 3 Fantasy Football Sleepers
🚨 HEADS UP 🚨 These are sleepers. They will not mimic my ranking 100%. It’s about hunting up and often carries more risk, but based on APA mappings, you can “break” if needed.
QUARTER
LIKELY STARTER: Carson Wentz, WSH — As mentioned in my Week 3 waiver column, Wentz isn’t going to throw 40+ times every week, but the Commanders’ defense — and Wentz’s interceptions — help push the offense for more throws. It helps that defenses can’t win trying to stop Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and/or Curtis Samuel. Death by a thousand cuts… well, three or four if you add the backfield, even five with a healthy Logan Thomas.
The Commanders also host the Eagles’ unstoppable offense, pointing to a shootout… which, of course, means a 10-7 slog-fest is in store. HAIL MARY START: Jared Goff, DET — The risk with Goff is zero running back, and if he only throws 1-2 touchdowns, there normally won’t be 300-400 yards to make up for it. While Aaron Rodgers didn’t do much against the Vikings in Week 1, he didn’t have much to throw and has struggled early in the season in the past. Jalen Hurts separated them – and on the ground – completing 26 of his 31 attempts for 333 yards and a touchdown. Goff is on pace to throw for three touchdowns this week.
RUNNING BACK
LIKELY STARTER: Devin Singletary, BUF — The Bills backfield continues to be disappointing with its lack of consistency, but at least Singletary is consistently on top of opportunities. While the Ravens didn’t get much against Miami, Lamar Jackson ate up the Dolphins, even putting up 5.0 YPC on his eight rushes off the 79-yard home run. Additionally, Damien Harris had 48 yards on nine carries in Week 1, even though Rhamondre Stevenson didn’t have the same success. That’s risky, but if the Dolphins offense can keep going, Singletary could be an RB2. LIKELY STARTER: Dameon Pierce, HOU — We knew the shoe was going to drop for Rex Burkhead, just no one expected it to happen in a week. Pierce led the way and the Bears offense can’t get out of its own way (more on them soon). Aaron Jones just gashed the Bears for 132 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries. HAIL MARY START: Jamaal Williams, DET — We’re chasing a touchdown with Williams as backup D’Andre Swift limits Williams’ touches, seeing 12 and 13, respectively, in the first two weeks. The matchup is pretty favorable, as the Vikings couldn’t stop the Eagles’ ground game, going 34-for-163 and two scores (both Hurts). Boston Scott looked like he was shot out of a cannon while going straight up the middle for a 16-yard run at one point, and we’re aiming for some decent runs for Williams, hopefully with one ending in a score.
LITTLE RECEIVER
LIKELY STARTER: Allen Robinson, LAR — Robinson rebounded but didn’t change the week, just a nice game (5-4-53-1). Frankly, a Top 25 performance from a team’s No. 2 receiver would be a welcome sight if it happened every week. Well, the Cardinals have allowed 42.1% of their opponents’ drives to end with a touchdown, including nine receptions of 20+ yards and seven touchdown catches. Cooper Kupp and ARob will have a big Week 3. LIKELY STARTERS: JuJu Smith-Schuster, KC — Brandin Cooks 7-82-0, Christian Kirk 6-78-2. Those were the top wideouts against the Colts in the first two weeks, and while Travis Kelce is technically the top receiving option for the Chiefs, JJSS is tied for second with Marquez Valdes-Scantling at 15.1 TmTGT%. It also has a 1.46 YPRR compared to MVS’s 0.89. HAIL MARY START: Darnell Mooney, CHI — Let’s go. Mooney has dropped into the Hail Mary starting zone, and when your team only attempts 11 passes, you understand why. However, even with the Colts and Broncos having mediocre performances against the Texans, those Texans have already allowed 10 receptions of 20+ yards – the most in the league. The Bears also faced the 49ers and Packers, two defenses much better than the Texans. Of course, Justin Fields will need to throw it more than 11 times. Let’s hope he doesn’t mess this up with desperate managers.
TIGHT END
LIKELY STARTER: Evan Engram, JAX — Don’t look now, but Engram is eighth in Route% for tight ends at 17.6 TmTGT%. Sure, he’s only converted 74 yards, but he’s caught all but one of his targets (his hands are working!). The Chargers are a tough matchup, but the tight end position is already raw, and we’re chasing tension… hopefully. HAIL MARY START: Tyler Conklin, NYJ — Speaking of volume, Conklin has a higher Route% than Engram at 84.4. Even with a formidable trio of receivers for the Jets, Conklin has seen 16 targets (16.0 TmTGT%) for 10-56-1. If the Bengals get back on track and make this a high-scoring affair, the Jets have shown they can keep up and Conklin has the potential to score.
Fun with ranking!
In case you missed the tweet of the amazing cake I found and made at home (no, it wasn’t a recipe from scratch), here it is in all its glory! Glad I made a Crunch Cinnamon Toast Cake to eat my sorrows away today pic.twitter.com/4yKFToyAVD — Jake Ciely (@allinkid) September 18, 2022 I was surprised that people wanted to rank cakes in boxes… maybe they were making fun of me, but if so, hey, I had fun anyway. However, it is a bit difficult to find 10 cakes on this list.
BUY AND SELL
Buys
Tom Brady, QB, TB — Brady’s receiving corps has been a mess so far. It might take a few more weeks (when Chris Godwin comes back), but Brady was QB2 last year. Derrick Henry, RB, TEN — Week 1 was uneventful with Dontrell Hilliard’s touchdowns, and Week 2 had the Titans pulling the trigger early in a blowout. Henry is still a beast and you want to buy low before the game becomes 150/1. Ken Walker, RB, SEA — I don’t want anything to do with being the Seahawks starting running back, but Walker fits the Chris Carson role better than Rashaad Penny, who is losing some value because of Travis Homer. Walker may never be able to start, but he’s marginally free (people want to let him go). Cam Akers, RB, LAR — The return to Akers started in Week 2. We may never get to 70% of the work for Akers, but even if Akers sits around 60-65%, he would be back in the weekly Top 20 . Elijah Moore, WR, NYJ — Leads Jets receivers in snaps and Route%. Moore’s time is coming, even if Garrett Wilson is his 1A or 1B, Moore would be the other half as both are better than Corey Davis. DK Metcalf, WR, SEA — I don’t want to hear more about “Quarterbacks Cooking” in Seattle. Either way, the Seahawks realize the offense stinks and is truly a two-man show with Tyler Lockett (26.3 TmTGT%) and Metcalf (22.8), with Metcalf getting the only red-zone targets and the end zone so far (one each). . Kyle Pitts, TE, ATL — As with the Seahawks, it’s a two-man show, and Drake London’s quick ascension will help balance the coverage and open things up for better days. People named Pitts as a top 4 for good reason.
It sells
Antonio Gibson, RB, WSH — Gibson could retain his starring role if he maintains confidence, especially since he’s second in G2G (Goal-to-Go, inside 10) rushes (four) and tied for most GLR ( Goal-line Rush , inside 5), also with four. But Brian Robinson’s impending return looms large. Michael Carter, RB, NYJ — The turn to Breece Hall could come soon, as the rookie opened up pretty well in Week 2. Carter has mostly hit the ground running, but if Hall starts to eat up in this project, Carter will slide into an RB3. Jahan Dotson, WR, WSH — Dotson leads Commanders in Route% (94.9) and touchdowns (three), but is fourth in TmTGT% at 11.8, behind even Logan Thomas, making him the most volatile and possible for regression. Gerald Everett, TE, LAC — Everett has been a great addition for the first two weeks, and it’s rare that someone trades tight ends, but Donald Parham — once he’s back — will impact Everett’s usage and value.
