“Very few people get that opportunity to talk about an extension. The opportunity that I have is something special and I appreciate that the Yankees want to do that,” Judge said after rejecting a seven-year, $213.5 million extension in spring training . “But I don’t mind going to free agency. … At the end of this year, I’ll be talking to 30 teams. The Yankees will be one of those teams.”
We know the Yankees offered seven years and $213.5 million because GM Brian Cashman took the unusual step of announcing the terms of the offer during a press conference. Judge didn’t seem to appreciate that — “That was something I felt was private between my team and the Yankees,” he said — and sought 9-10 years at $36 million per year, according to the New York Post.
The Yankees made a reasonable offer in spring training, and now, nearly six months later, Judge has done what once seemed impossible: earn more money. Teams pay for future performance, not past performance, though Judge raised his perceived cap this year. He is no longer capable of an MVP-caliber season. He is capable of historic greatness.
“We think Aaron Judge is an all-time Yankee. We think he’s a great player, more than a great player. We think he’s a great person. That’s why we offered him the highest-paid contract in Yankees history, ” Yankees president Randy Levine said earlier this month. “I admire him for coming out and taking it on his shoulders and we’re going to sit down with him and hopefully figure it out. I think there’s no question we want him back and there’s no question we appreciate him.”
What has Judge’s season done to his earning potential? Well, a lot. We know so much. Let’s try to figure out what Judge’s next contract might look like after the season he’s had.
The extension offer, in context
The Yankees didn’t pull seven years and $213.5 million out of thin air. The extension would have started in 2023, and the average annual value of $30.5 million would be the second-richest ever for an outfielder, just above Mookie Betts and well below Mike Trout. Here are the richest outfield contracts in history:
- Mike Trout, Angels: $426.5 million
- Mike Trout, Angels: $35.54 million
- Mookie Betts, Dodgers: $365 million
- Mookie Betts, Dodgers: $30.42 million
- Bryce Harper, Phillies: $330 million
- Yoenis Cespedes, Mets: $27.5 million
- Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins: $325 million
- Kris Bryant, Rockies: $26 million
- Christian Yelich, Brewers: $215 million
- Bryce Harper, Phillies: $25.38 million
The Yankees and Judge nearly went to an arbitration hearing this year (the two sides agreed to a salary of $19 million, the middle of the filing figures of $21 and $17 million), and, according to the New York Post, the Yankees were willing to give Judge the $21 million salary he was asking for in 2022 as part of the extension. The total package was eight years and $234.5 million.
In total, the Yankees offered to make Judge the second-highest paid outfielder in terms of annual salary and also give him the fifth-largest guarantee ever given to an outfielder. That said, neither the annual value nor the total guarantee would be the richest in franchise history. These belong to Gerrit Cole ($36 million annually and $324 million overall). Also, Judge would have beaten Alex Rodriguez’s 2008-17 contract in annual salary ($27.5 million) but no total guaranteed ($275 million).
So the Yankees did offer to make Judge one of the highest-paid outfielders in baseball, but they didn’t make him the highest-paid Yankee, either on an annual basis or in terms of total dollars. He would still look up to Cole even though he was a homegrown superstar.
Contract length
Two things limit Judge’s potential: his age and his injury history. Judge will turn 31 shortly after Opening Day 2023, so his next contract will likely buy bulk years of decline. This is usually the case with long-term agreements. Teams accept the bad years at the end for the elite years ahead, and Judge is the best player in the sport right now.
As for durability issues, a variety of injuries limited Judge to 242 of a possible 384 regular-season games from 2018-20, or 63 percent. But aside from a 10-day stint on the COVID list last August, Judge has been perfectly healthy the past two years, so those injury concerns are far in the rearview mirror. The latest information is a dominant player who posts daily.
The Yankees know Judge and his medical better than anyone. They evaluated his age and injury history and still felt comfortable signing him through his age-37 season. And that’s the number we have to focus on when looking at the length of the contract, the age of the player. Here’s how long several star players have been signed to long-term contracts:
Julio Rodríguez’s new contract potentially ties him to the Mariners until age 38. Juan Soto turned down the extension that would have kept him out until 38. Looks like the magic number: 38. That’s the age of the best, the game is really elite players (Betts, Trout, etc.), whether they’re signed through or expected to be signed through.
The Yankees offered Judge a seven-year deal covering his age 31-37 seasons, and frankly, the Yankees probably would have gotten off easy if all they had to do was give the 38-year-old an extra year to loop. Given the season he’s in, Judge has all the leverage he needs to ask for a contract that will take him through the age of 39, similar to Betts.
Similar stars were signed during the ’38-39 season either as free agents or when they were very close to free agency. Even though he will play most of 2023 at age 31, that gives Judge and his representatives enough justification to pursue at least an eight-year deal this winter, turning 38, if not a ninth year through 39.
Average annual value
Mets owner Steve Cohen and Max Scherzer did Judge (and all players, really) a huge favor by raising the bar on average annual value so much this past offseason. Here are baseball’s richest contracts in terms of average annual salary:
Just like that, the salary of elite players increased from about $35 million per year to more than $40 million per year. Scherzer received that record-breaking $43.33 million annual salary as part of a three-year deal, but eventually someone will receive $40 million per year on a long-term contract. Why not the judge? He’s as good a candidate as anyone, especially if he wins wins the Triple Crown and/or sets a new AL single-season home run record
At this point it’s hard to imagine Judge signing for less than Cole’s $36 million per year. The precedent has been set for a star player to get $40 million-plus per season, and for Judge to pursue that would not be unreasonable. It might not happen, but his camp throwing that number out there during contract talks wouldn’t be outlandish. This is now the percentage for the best players in the league.
The umpire’s salary scale no longer depends on other outfielders. He has earned the right to have his salary based on what the other great players in the sport are making, regardless of position. That means Scherzer and Cole are benchmarks, Correa and Rendon as well. The judge can point to these Correas and Rendons and say I’m better than them, so pay more.
A marquee value
This is hard to quantify as an outsider, but it exists and it works both ways. The Yankees derive value from Judge beyond his contributions on the field. He puts butt in the seats, drives TV ratings, sells merchandise, the works. The Yankees will have paid Judge about $35 million in salary by the end of this season, and he has generated much more revenue for the franchise.
At the same time, being a Yankee helps Judge. It equates to endorsement opportunities (Judge had more endorsement deals than any other player in 2021) and all sorts of other benefits that come with being a star athlete in New York. The New York market comes with benefits that simply cannot be found anywhere else. With all due respect, a Yankee star is more famous than a star of anything else in baseball.
The Yankees put Judge’s value on the cake when they made their extension bid and will do so again in the postseason, and Judge will consider that when making calls. It could make financial sense to take, say, $1 million less per year to stay with the Yankees than to join another team just because the off-field opportunities are so great. The value of the awning is an important consideration.
Exemption Clause
The Yankees popularized the opt-out clause years ago when they gave CC Sabathia an opt out three years into his original seven-year, $161 million deal with the team. Cashman said they included the opt-out to give Sabathia peace of mind that if he didn’t enjoy his time in New York, he could leave (Sabathia later used that opt-out in an extension). Since then exceptions have become commonplace. If you want a top free agent, you’ll probably have to give him an opt out. The exception is certainly possible with the judge,…
