Given the herd immunity people have acquired through a combination of mass vaccination and protection from previous infections, Californians overall were much less likely to die from COVID in 2022, when the microbe variant predominated, than in the first two years of the pandemic , when Other Variations were heavily in play, fueling a national trend. Yet each week, the virus kills hundreds of Californians, hitting hardest among the unvaccinated. The virus remained among the leading causes of death in the state in July, trailing heart disease, cancer, stroke and Alzheimer’s disease, but surpassing diabetes, accidental deaths and a host of other debilitating diseases. In the first seven months of the year, about 13,500 Californians died from COVID, according to preliminary death certificate data from the state Department of Public Health. By comparison, the virus killed about 31,400 people in 2020 and nearly 44,000 in 2021. From April 2020 to December 2021, COVID killed an average of 3,600 people per month, making it the third leading cause of death in the state cumulatively for that time period, behind heart disease and cancer. From December 2020 to February 2021, it briefly surpassed heart disease as the leading cause of death, taking the lives of more than 38,300 Californians in just three months. During its most recent peak in January 2022, COVID claimed an estimated 5,900 lives. Covid dropped out of the top 10 causes of death for a brief period in the spring only to return this summer as the micron variant continued to mutate. In July, even with more than 70% of Californians fully vaccinated, COVID was the fifth leading cause of death, claiming more than 1,000 lives, according to state data. Clearly the vaccinations made a difference. Death rates from Covid have fallen in recent months as vaccines and previous infections have offered much of the population significant protection from serious illness, said Dr. Timothy Brewer, a professor of medicine and epidemiology at UCLA. Brewer said the omicron variant, while more contagious than previous strains, appears to be a milder version of the virus. Research into that question is ongoing, but preliminary data suggest the micron is less likely to cause serious illness and death, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which also notes that the severity of symptoms can be affected by vaccination status, age and other health conditions. The decline in deaths was particularly striking among California’s Latino populations. In 2020 and 2021, Latinos accounted for 47 percent of California’s COVID deaths — about 35,400 deaths — even though they make up 40 percent of the state’s population. By comparison, Latinos accounted for 34 percent of COVID deaths from January to July 2022, according to state data. This translates to approximately 4,600 deaths. In contrast, the proportion of COVID deaths involving white residents increased from 32% in the first two years of the pandemic to 44% in the first seven months of 2022. This equates to 24,400 deaths involving white residents in 2020-21 and about 6,000 deaths in the first seven months of 2022. Whites make up about 35% of the state’s population. Researchers point to several factors in the shift. During the first two years of the pandemic, large numbers of essential workers who continued to report in person to jobs were Latino, while white residents were more likely to be employed in occupations that allowed them to work from home, US Census Bureau surveys show. “They were just more exposed,” said Dr. George Rutherford, a professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at the University of California-San Francisco. “They are doing basic jobs and had to leave the house and go to work.” An imbalance in telecommuting remains, census data show, but today large majorities of both Latino and white workers in California report working in person. Seciah Aquino, deputy director of the Latino Coalition for a Healthy California, said efforts to ensure testing, treatment and vaccinations were available to underserved communities of color were also having an impact. And because Latino communities were hit so hard during the pandemic, he said, many California Latinos are still wearing masks. “They still make sure they stay home if they’re sick,” he said. “They still adhere to those policies even as the larger narrative changes.” Age is also a key factor in demographic changes, Brewer said. Californians age 75 and older accounted for 53% of COVID-related deaths through July 2022, up from 46% in 2020 and 2021. Only about 6% of the state’s residents are age 75 or older. And white Californians 75 and older outnumber Latinos in that age group by about 3 to 1. In the initial vaccination rollout, California prioritized seniors, first responders and other essential workers, and for several months in 2021 older residents were significantly more likely to be vaccinated than younger Californians. “Now, vaccination rates have reached almost everyone except children, people under 18,” Brewer said. “You see it goes back to what we saw before, which is that age remains the most important risk factor for death.” More than 86% of Californians age 65 and older have completed the primary series of COVID-19 shots. However, the protection afforded by vaccines wanes over time, and since many seniors got their shots early, enough time passed between the second vaccine and the Omicron wave in early 2022 to leave them vulnerable. About a third of Californians age 65 and older had not received a booster by early 2022, when the Omicron wave peaked, and about a quarter had not yet received a booster. Geographic shifts in the prevalence of COVID have occurred throughout the pandemic: Outbreaks hit one area while another is spared, and then another community acts as the epicenter a few months later. Residents of the San Francisco-Oakland metro area accounted for 7.8 percent of the state’s deaths in 2022, through early September, up from 5.4 percent in 2020-2021. The region is home to approximately 12% of the state’s population. The Sacramento metro area also accounts for a higher share of deaths from COVID-19 this year: 6% in 2022 versus 4.5% in 2020-21. At the same time, residents of the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim metro area accounted for 42% of COVID-19 deaths in 2022, down slightly from 43% in 2020-21. The region is home to approximately 33% of the state’s population. A similar plunge occurred in the nearby Riverside-San Bernardino metro area. Again, age could be a factor in geographic changes. A higher percentage of residents in San Francisco and Sacramento are 75 and older than in Los Angeles and Riverside, according to census data. It is unclear whether this change will last. As the Los Angeles Times reported, deaths from COVID rose at a faster rate in July in LA County than in the Bay Area. The data also show that vaccination remains one of the strongest deterrents to death from COVID. From January to July, unvaccinated Californians died at nearly five times the rate of vaccinated Californians. But the gap narrowed. From April to December 2021, unvaccinated Californians died, on average, at about 10 times the rate of vaccinated Californians. Brewer said the gap narrowed because the micron variant was more likely than previous variants to “break” and cause infection in vaccinated Californians. The omicron variant, while less lethal, also infected far more people than previous variants. That trend, too, may prove short-lived: The next generation of COVID-19 booster shots are rolling out across the state. Phillip Reese is a data reporting specialist and assistant professor of journalism at California State University-Sacramento. This article first appeared in California Health Line, which is produced by Kaiser Health News.
