Ukraine’s success was textbook cheating. Similar to the D-Day landings where Calais was the obvious target – prompting Hitler to weaken his defenses in Normandy where the invasion then took place – President Zelensky launched a major counter-attack east of Odessa only to have the main effort of hundreds miles north, near Kharkiv. The few Russian forces that had not moved south were easily crushed. Ill-equipped and low on ammunition and morale, they soon abandoned their positions. For Ukraine to achieve such a sweeping land grab, moving it to the Russian border, is arguably Putin’s most serious setback to date and has fueled a sense of optimism that Ukraine could indeed win. But it would be irresponsible to assume that this turning point in the war will see the apparent collapse of Russia. This is Putin’s war of choice and part of a much broader strategy to reassert Russian influence across Eastern Europe. Putin cannot afford to lose. He may have miscalculated Ukraine’s heroic efforts to stay the course and fight, but he was clearly gambling on the West’s reluctance to engage directly. We should expect Putin to further advance unconventional warfare tactics (along with military strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure) to compensate for his poor showing of conventional forces. Expect more disruptions to remaining oil and gas flows as well as delays in grain departures to cause increased economic hardship as winter approaches. More worrying is the threatened use of weapons of mass destruction – chemical, biological or tactical nuclear. These are lines we shouldn’t assume he won’t cross, but if he does, what will be the West’s response? Whether by accident or design, there is also the possibility that Ukraine’s nuclear power plants could be converted into improvised nuclear weapons. The West can pour money into the food and fuel crisis to alleviate problems in source countries and the least developed, but not the nuclear conundrum.
Money will not stop Zaporizhzhya, Ukraine’s largest nuclear facility, from blowing up and spreading radioactive contamination across Europe if Putin chooses to take this war. Just this week Russian forces launched a missile attack that narrowly missed a nuclear power plant in Pivdennoukrainsk, southern Ukraine. As this conflict moves into a more dangerous chapter, we must place greater trust in shaping the character of this conflict than responding to events as we have done to date. If we want to prevent a serious catastrophe, we must be much more active in creating and defending precedents for modern nuclear war before it is too late. Both the IAEA and the UN are calling for a demilitarized zone that would fence off Zaporizhia and other nuclear plants. This must now be pursued. The situation in Zaporizhzhia is unacceptable and has the potential to create the most catastrophic nuclear accident in history, worse even than Chernobyl. If a missile strike did lead to a plume of radioactivity drifting westward, there would be serious criticism as to why more was not done to prevent it. So, first, we need a no-fly zone around the plant. The UN could deploy air defense systems to enforce it. There could be an anti-missile system to prevent the missiles from hitting the reactors. Ukraine’s State Emergency Services are looking to set up a country-wide radiation detection system, and no doubt the Ukrainian military is doing the same to protect its own troops to ensure they don’t wander into contaminated areas unwittingly. Unfortunately, we still lack the confidence or political will to stand up to Putin directly. Opportunities such as sending a NATO division to prevent a Russian invasion in the first place, or taking the initiative through a UN maritime coalition protecting grain convoys from Odessa, were missed. Honestly, they weren’t even considered. Doing nothing is not an option. Putin is now in a corner. this is arguably when they are at their most dangerous. Ukraine’s recent military success requires us to think more strategically about what happens next. This is far from over and will get worse before it gets better. Tobias Ellwood is Conservative MP for Bournemouth East and Chair of the Defense Select Committee Hamish de Bretton-Gordon OBE is a former commander of the UK and NATO CBRN forces.