Choose your league size, customize the score and set the rules you want to follow to create the fantasy basketball league you want to play in. Create your custom league for free! So which players will rise above their average draft position this season?. Who will take their game to another level? And which players are most at risk of taking a step back? Our fantasy basketball experts — Andre’ Snellings, Eric Moody, Eric Karabell and Jim McCormick — offer their top sleepers, breakouts and busts for the 2022-23 season.
Sleep
Sleeper: A player who will far exceed his average draft position (ADP) in standard ESPN leagues. Andre’ Snellings — Alperen Sengun, Houston Rockets: Sengun started jumping on the fantasy radar after flashing in the Las Vegas Summer League soon after being drafted. He’s a do-it-all forward, and his per-36-minute numbers from his rookie season attest to that: 16.7 PP36, 9.5 RP36, 4.5 AP36, 1.6 BP36, 1.4 SP36 and 0.7 3P36 . The biggest problem, on the fantasy front, was that as a rookie he only averaged 20.7 MPG behind Christian Wood. Well, Wood was traded to the Mavericks during the offseason, clearing the way for Sengun to start getting early minutes. His game should be better as a sophomore and with the added minutes he has the potential to put up strong numbers this season. Eric Moody — Jalen Suggs, Orlando Magic: Suggs had an up-and-down rookie season for the Orlando Magic, including injuries and roster inconsistency. A rookie trying to adjust to the NBA, he averaged 11.8 PPG, 3.6 RPG and 4.4 APG, but his 36.1% field goal percentage needs improvement. Suggs isn’t the first highly-drafted NBA player to struggle early in his career, and he won’t be the last. Suggs is more of a role player than a star, and with the Magic selecting Paolo Banchero No. 1 overall, he’ll have a chance to really shine by doing just that. Suggs will see a lot of use alongside Franz Wagner and will continue to have an important role for Orlando. Eric Karabell — Tre Jones, San Antonio Spurs: Now entering his third season at Duke, Jones didn’t see many minutes for Gregg Popovich the first two years. Now star Dejounte Murray has gone to the Hawks, though, and Jones should start and see big minutes. Jones started 11 times last season and averaged 13.5 PPG and 7.5 APG, and he shot well from the field and the line. Jones can’t do what Murray does, but he’s worth a top-100 for minutes and potential in assists alone. Jim McCormick — Devin Vassell, San Antonio Spurs: Only Jokic, James Harden and Luka Doncic touched the ball more than Dejude Murray’s 87.5 times for the Spurs last season. Murray paced all players under 6’7 in rebound opportunities per game, while also finishing in the top 10 passes and drives per game. Deep in the draft, Vassell is a young two-way wing ready to take advantage of the ocean of opportunities available after Murray’s departure. In just over 400 minutes with Murray and Derrick White off the floor last season, Vassell, 21, averaged 17.1 points, 2.8 threes, 5.9 boards, 3.7 assists, 2.4 combined blocks and steals (per 36 minutes. Even among the Spurs’ pursuit of lottery chances, there’s a lot to like about Vassell’s run.
Outbursts
Breakout: A player who will enter or approach the upper echelon of players at his position for the first time due to a dramatic increase in production compared to his previous seasons. Andre’ Snellings — Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks: Brunson showed he could produce next season playing next to usage vacuum Luka Doncic, but when Doncic was out, Brunson really showed his potential. During Doncic’s 10-game absence in December, Brunson averaged 21.0 PPG (51.3 FG%, 37.5 3P%, 77.5 FT%), 7.4 APG, 3.5 RPG and 1.5 3PG in 34.7 MPG. But the most tantalizing stretch came when Doncic missed the first three games of the playoffs. Brunson responded by averaging 32.0 PPG (50.7 FG%, 41.2 3P%, 85.0 FT%), 5.3 APG, 5.3 RPG and 2.3 3PG in 39.4 MPG vs. during this period. This offseason, Brunson signed as the new point guard for the Knicks, meaning he now gets the keys to a high-use franchise. He has the strengths to break into the fantasy elite this season. Eric Moody — Josh Giddey, Oklahoma City Thunder: I’m a big fan of Giddey, as those who read my columns last year will know. He was awarded the Rookie of the Month award four times last year due to his outstanding performance. There was no other player in the class of 2021 who won the award more than twice. Giddey averaged 12.5 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 6.4 APG and 1.0 SPG on a 22.2% usage rate. In all of these statistical areas, he is well positioned to see an increase. The statistical jump Giddey can make in his second season could be similar to that of LaMelo Ball. Aside from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Giddey, the Thunder don’t have many playmakers. Josh Giddey did a lot of things well as a rookie last season. AP Photo/Tony Dejak Eric Karabell — Alperen Sengun, Houston Rockets: The Rockets were eager to part with Wood, and it opens up significant minutes for Sengun, who averaged 12.1 PPG, 8.2 RPG in 13 starts as a rookie. Those might not be eye-popping stats for many centers, but Sengun, 20, is also a sneaky strong assist provider, averaging 3.6 APG in his starts. He can also block shots. Give Sengun enough minutes and he could easily become a top-50 fantasy pick. Jim McCormick — Franz Wagner, Orlando Magic: Lowkey terrific as a rookie for the Magic, Wagner finished 50th overall on ESPN’s Player Rater as a 20-year-old on a team plagued by brutal backcourt injuries and an overall lack of a consistent point guard I play guard. With Markelle Fultz’s distribution skills and Paolo Banchero’s ability to join the roster, Wagner may finally get some “easy” work this season. The Michigan product, meanwhile, was an absolute boss for Germany at EuroBasket this summer, scoring a series of efficient pull-ups and step-up threes off a lively dribble. Given what should be a big role as a building block next to Banchero, Wagner becoming a starting fantasy force at both front spots could be in the works.
Busts
Bust: A player who is expected to be a solid starter in standard ESPN leagues, but will fail to live up to those expectations this season. Andre’ Snellings — Chris Paul, Phoenix Suns: In the three seasons from 2016-17 to 2018-19, Paul missed an average of 23 games per season due to injury. He was relatively healthy for the next two seasons, both shortened by COVID, but then missed 18 games again last season, his 17th in the NBA. He was still strong when he played during the season, but in the playoffs, just after his 37th birthday, he immediately turned in several of the worst games of his career. Over his last five playoff games, Paul has only averaged 9.4 PPG, 5.8 APG, 3.4 RPG and 3.6 TO/G in 32.3 MPG. His poor performance played a big role in the Suns’ playoff upset. This season, the risk of injury and the risk of age decline overlap in such a way that there is a very high chance that Paul will underperform his typical level and/or be absent for key parts of the season. Eric Moody — Harrison Barnes, Sacramento Kings: Barnes was excellent for the Sacramento Kings last season with 16.4 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 2.4 APG and an 18.2% usage rate. Fantasy managers will expect him to reproduce those numbers. Given the influx of talent the Kings have had this offseason, including Kevin Huerter, Malik Monk and Keegan Murray, Barnes will have a hard time doing that. Harrison Barnes could see his usage rate drop this season with more scorers on the Kings. AP Photo/Charles Krupa Eric Karabell — Zion Williamson, New Orleans Pelicans: Zion was my pick last season as well, as it was easy to question how soon he would return from foot surgery. He ended up missing the entire season. Big durability concerns aside, Williamson’s stats are a bit deceiving and may not justify his high ADP. Ultimately, while the unstoppable Williamson can score at will, he’s just a mediocre rebounder, doesn’t play a role in 3-point shooting, and can do a lot of damage to a fantasy team’s free-throw percentage. Oh, and did we mention it’s far from durable? Jim McCormick — Clint Capela, Atlanta Hawks: Onyeka Okongwu is the center of the future for the Hawks. The third-year center puts up some amazing advanced metrics that often align with team success, and both his contract and age align much better with the team’s superstar backcourt. As for Capela’s fantasy value, last season’s 11.1 points and 11.9 points with 1.3 blocks in 27.6 minutes per night represent the potential ceiling for this season, where competition from Okongwu for opportunities will increase. I mean, he could be fine, but there’s really no way he’s special. One of the only viable paths to restoring Atlanta’s status as a taxing team (in the face of a new commitment to Murray) is to move Capela, adding more uncertainty to an old-school center with a relatively expensive sinker position.
