The dual conflict began with the announcement early Tuesday that Russia’s State Duma had passed legislation introducing tougher punishments for soldiers who “voluntarily” surrender to the front lines or refuse to follow orders. Deserters would face up to 15 years behind bars, while those who surrender face up to 10 years in prison. Those who refuse to follow the orders of their commanders face three years. The legislation, which for the first time also adds the concepts of “conscription, martial law and time of war” to the Russian Criminal Code, is widely seen as the first step in launching a full-scale mobilization. After unanimous approval by the State Duma, the legislation will be sent to the Federal Council on Wednesday, according to state media. With the Federation Council also expected to sign up, the new prison terms will come into effect once Putin signs the bill into law – which could happen as soon as Wednesday. Surprisingly, the legislation was already marked as approved at all stages on the government portal as of Wednesday afternoon. While the move is widely seen as a way for the Kremlin to bolster its troops, it was almost immediately met with panicked calls for Russian troops to leave the war now before it’s too late. “We call on Russian servicemen at military bases and at the front to refuse participation in the ‘special operation’ or to surrender as soon as possible. This is probably your last chance—and you must use it the next day,” the anti-war movement Vesna wrote in an open letter. A dozen other anti-war groups are also reported to have signed the petition. While Russian social media channels erupted with panicked posts about the prospect of mobilization, Russian proxy leaders in occupied parts of Ukraine announced, almost unanimously, that they would hold “referendums” on joining Russia starting this week. “We have charted a course for reunification, return to Russia. And we will not move away from it,” Vladimir Saldo, Moscow’s puppet leader in Kherson, announced in a video message. Referendums are now due to be held in the Russian-controlled regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia from September 23 to 27. While the Kremlin has long pretended to be helpless when it comes to the “referendums” – claiming they are being initiated by residents living in these occupied territories – it didn’t take long for news to leak about Russians being forced to participate in the vote. Inmates in two Rostov penal colonies have already been ordered to vote in favor of joining the Ukrainian territories to Russia, according to independent news agency Mozhem Obyasnit. Two sources cited by the news agency said prison officials at one facility ordered all prisoners with Ukrainian passports to vote, while the entire prison population was ordered to do so at the other. The apparently frantic efforts to rush the referendums mark a complete 180 from Russia’s plans just two weeks ago, when the Kremlin repeatedly postponed plans for the votes after failing to gain enough ground or win enough support. Sources cited by Meduza at the time said Vladimir Putin had targeted November 4 after he “got tired of waiting”. But by mid-September, even that date no longer seemed possible, as Ukrainian forces regained territory across the east thanks to multiple surprise counterattacks that literally sent Russian troops fleeing. It was apparently these humiliating defeats that prompted the Kremlin to act now. “There is a mentality now to do everything very quickly,” a source close to the Russian presidential administration was quoted as telling Meduza on Wednesday. Sources cited by the publication said that Putin’s sudden change of plans was the result of a pressure campaign by high-ranking Russian officials who want to step up the war effort against Ukraine and go so far as to introduce mobilization. They were reportedly fueled by concerns that Ukraine may soon retake territory currently held by Russia. “They have influenced Putin, and as we speak, it’s all hands on deck,” one source said. Their thinking, according to three sources cited by Meduza, is that the referendums will stop further Ukrainian counterattacks because, as one of them put it, Ukraine “will not risk attacking Russian territory.” If Ukrainian counterattacks continue, they said, Russian authorities plan to use the new legislation to impose martial law and partial mobilization. It is not clear how Russia intends to annex territories that are not even fully under its control. As the Institute for the Study of War noted on Tuesday, on the eve of Russia’s latest bombshell announcements, the idea that Russia can gain the upper hand in the war by annexing some Ukrainian land is “incoherent.” Such a partial annexation “would put the Kremlin in the awkward position of demanding that Ukrainian forces withdraw from ‘Russian’ territory and the humiliating position of being unable to enforce that demand,” the Washington-based think tank wrote. Many of Putin’s closest friends, however, seem to see the latest moves as a major turning point, with RT editor-in-chief Margarita Simonyan leading the charge on Twitter: “Judging by what is happening and about to happen, this week marks either on the eve of our imminent victory or on the eve of nuclear war’.
