CNN —
The first time a president repudiates a critical foreign policy principle, it may seem like an accident. If it happens four times, it looks like he means it.
Now may be the time to support Joe Biden that the US will defend Taiwan if it is attacked by China, but his aides often back off.
The President’s latest apparent jab at the longstanding US policy of “strategic ambiguity” came on CBS’s “60 Minutes” in an interview that aired Sunday. Scott Pelley made it quite clear in his question that he was asking if US men and women would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion. Biden looked back and said gravely, “Yes.” While the CBS show said Biden aides insist the President hasn’t changed long-term policy, the attempted comeback doesn’t really match what Biden said.
That didn’t look like a blunder. Biden didn’t seem to hear the question properly. And now what?
With their repeated denials that anything has changed, Biden officials appear to be creating a state of strategic confusion, as he has written in the meantime. The aides’ constant corrections aren’t just disrespectful to Biden. they raise the possibility that it is leading foreign policy and defense officials to a place they do not want to go.
Of course, Biden’s remarks don’t necessarily equate to how he would behave in an actual crisis. And even though US intelligence analysts believe Beijing is building a military capable of seizing Taiwan, that doesn’t mean it will actually go ahead and do so.
The US President’s comments are consistent with a strong push in parts of Capitol Hill to toughen US policy on Taiwan. But it’s a dangerous game given Beijing’s growing military prowess and the importance Chinese leader Xi Jinping places on making the self-governing island part of the mainland. Critics of the new aggressiveness warn that a more direct US stance is more likely to antagonize Beijing than to make it think twice about invading.
The Chinese leadership are far more sophisticated readers of US policy than they once were. But here are the recent messages from Washington: Just last month, Nancy Pelosi became the first speaker of the House to visit Taiwan in 25 years. (China’s military mobilization in response demonstrated its growing ability to strangle the island in a blockade). Last week, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee advanced a $6.5 billion bill for military aid to Taiwan. Now Biden has repeated his promise to stand up for Taiwan while insisting that the foundations of US relations with its Asian superpower rival — that there is one China and Washington does not support Taipei independence — remain intact.
Biden Says US Willing To Respond ‘Militarily’ If China Attacks Taiwan
It certainly appears that the US has moved from obscurity to deterrence. And while war is hopefully a distant prospect, no one has prepared the American people for the possibility of defending a democracy many time zones away. Or the extraordinary consequences a military showdown would have in terms of economic collapse, disruption of supply chains and semiconductor imports. Not to mention the potential cost in American blood of even a limited naval skirmish.
A US conflict with China would make the aftermath of the war in Ukraine look like a sideshow.
