Author of the article: Don Braid • Calgary Herald
Publication date: Sep 19, 2022 • 5 hours ago • 3 min read • 33 comments UCP leadership candidates, left to right: Todd Loewen, Danielle Smith, Rajan Sawhney, Rebecca Schulz, Leela Aheer, Travis Toews and Brian Jean, participate in a debate in Medicine Hat on July 27, 2022. Photo by Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press/File

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With all the UCP uproar over Danielle Smith’s sovereignty law promise, it’s widely believed the governing group will melt into bitter division if she wins the leadership, paving the way for an NDP victory next spring.

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Don’t count on it. Many in the UCP’s 60-member caucus are already adjusting to the strong possibility that Smith will win on October 6. These are politicians above all and they want to win another election. Sign up to receive daily news headlines from the Calgary Herald, a division of Postmedia Network Inc. By clicking the subscribe button you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. You can unsubscribe at any time by clicking the unsubscribe link at the bottom of our emails. Postmedia Network Inc. | 365 Bloor Street East, Toronto, Ontario, M4W 3L4 | 416-383-2300

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One MLA summed up the sentiment this way: “There is no one in this caucus, not one person, who believes that a government led by Rachel Notley is better than a government led by Danielle Smith. “The feeling is, let’s all point our arrows in the same direction.” The very fact that this is happening shows that many UCP MLAs believe that Smith will win. In some provinces, MLAs can’t find party members to vote for anyone else – except maybe Todd Loewen, who has a big following. Recently, Smith’s campaign has been sending private conciliatory messages to other candidates. Her campaign chairman, Rob Anderson, is now saying so publicly:

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“If Danielle becomes prime minister, she is going to waste no time settling scores with former leadership rivals and their supporters after a bitter election showdown. This is what children do in the school yard. “Albertans expect us to be adults, put aside petty rivalries and work as a united conservative group. and that group will include every elected Conservative MLA in the province, regardless of past criticism.” This may upset some party members and MLAs who want the next premier to erase all traces of Premier Jason Kenney’s tenure. Smith makes it clear that she will not do this by banishing or punishing people.

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Some critics of the sovereignty law could actually remain in cabinet, likely including Energy Secretary Sonya Savage, despite her recent outburst on Smith’s plan. Treasury Secretary Jason Nixon was tougher, but even he may be safe. (If they even want to stay, that is.) Lowen, who backs the Unqualified Sovereignty Act, would almost certainly get a top job — his ultimate revenge for being kicked out of the caucus at Kenney’s instigation. But first, Smith needs near-unanimous support for the Sovereignty Act she plans to bring to a vote in the House. To that end, it is very likely that he will arrange to postpone the legislative session until mid or late November. The fall opening is currently set for October 31st. The extra weeks would give Smith time to work on the unity of parliamentary staff. The new ministers will be able to settle into their jobs.

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Above all, the extra time would be used to produce a sovereignty bill that could be passed by the legislature and accepted by the lieutenant governor. Salma Lakhani, who has already indicated that she would not approve an unconstitutional bill. Smith’s people believe they can convince the reluctant UCP members that the bill will not cause a national crisis and will be the same fully constitutional one approved by scholars in the field. Another obvious job would be to elect the new prime minister. She is the only one of the seven candidates who is not an MLA. It is very strange for the government to be run for a long time by a prime minister who has not won a seat. (And, yes, she would immediately be full prime minister.) But this is a known problem and relatively easy to fix.

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Former Alberta Premier Jim Prentiss had to win his seat after winning his party’s leadership. Dean Bennett/The Canadian Press Smith would be in the same position as Jim Prentice in 2014. After capturing the leadership of the Progressive Conservatives on September 6, Prentice won the Calgary-Foothills riding on October 27. Len Webber had paved the way by resigning his seat at the end of September, the day after winning a federal Conservative nomination. Don Getty was unseated twice, shortly after becoming PC leader and premier in 1985, and again when he lost Edmonton in the 1989 general election. He won primaries both times. There is a draft vacancy waiting for Smith – Calgary-Elbow, recently vacated by Doug Schweitzer. But it might not be the safest ride for her. All of this, of course, is hypothetical until the ballots are counted on October 6. But Smith’s campaign, not without nerve, is already trying to shape a post-vote mindset in both the party and the public. Don Braid’s column appears regularly in the Calgary Herald. Twitter: @DonBraid

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