The rematch will take place on Monday night, this time in Buffalo, as the Bills look to win their second straight primetime state after demolishing the Rams on opening night. The Titans blew a lead and dropped a game-winning field goal at home against the Giants in Week 1. From a buy-low, sell-high perspective, this seems like a natural place to return to the Titans in Week 2 after a loss as a home favorite. But the Titans have now beaten the Bills in back-to-back seasons, and this is also a prime revenge angle for Buffalo at home. Use Barstool Sportsbook promo code ACTION1000 to get a $1,000 risk-free bet on MNF!
Titans vs Bills Matchup Analysis
Enable the following drop-down menus to hide or show how Titans and accounts match up statistically: Packers vs. Vikings DVOA Analysis Overall DVOA 10 1 Pass the DVOA 1 1 Rush DVOA 28 2 Overall DVOA 6 19 Pass the DVOA 4 16 Rush DVOA 32 26 The biggest question mark for the Titans’ entire season, and for the downside of this game, is what you make of their run attack. The reality is that Tennessee’s rushing attack has declined significantly in each of the last three seasons. In 2020, the Titans finished first in Rushing Success Rate and second only to the Ravens in rushing EPA/play. Fast forward to 2021 and the Titans have fallen to 21st in Rushing Success Rate and 13th in rushing EPA/play. Even if you control for Derrick Henry’s injury and only count when he played, they were eighth in EPA/play. The Titans’ offensive line finished Week 1 ranked 10th in Run Block Win Rate, and yet the offense never made the play run consistently. Only the Bengals have a lower rushing success rate so far. The passing offense was mostly good against the Giants with an EPA rating/top-10 game, but the Titans couldn’t move the chains on the ground. What made the Titans a nightmare matchup for Buffalo the last two seasons was Tennessee’s physicality on the offensive line, Henry on the ground and AJ Brown through the air. If the Titans can’t successfully destroy their possessions, it’s hard to see how they keep up with the Bills’ elite passing attack. Buffalo’s defense has been a weakness in the past, but it’s not clear it will continue to be one in 2022. The Bills held the Rams to a 29.4% Rushing Success Rate, and only Jacksonville was better at that point. The Bills also didn’t have a touchdown last week and were pressured against the Rams, but I expect the Titans offensive line to hold up better in pass protection. NFL teams that lose straight Week 1 as favorites are 32-20-2 (61.5%) ATS over the last 17 seasons in Week 2. The reasoning is pretty clear. When a team that was expected to be good underperforms in Week 1, the market overreacts and creates a great opportunity to bet on a better number in Week 2. Although the Packers were shut out as underdogs in Minnesota last week, it’s a similar situation to them. That said, I’m under buying the Titans and think they’re an overall overrated team based on how well they ran in close games last season. Their Pythagorean Win Total was just 11th best in the NFL at 10.3, while Buffalo finished first at 13.3. So even though the Titans beat each other and finished with a better record last year, the market is pricing Buffalo as three wins better than Tennessee. I don’t like putting up double figures in the NFL and I think Buffalo is too much of a threat out of the gate to put up 10 points, but I also don’t care to take the Titans by the points given their splits in the game and potentially improved Bills motion defense. There aren’t enough paths to offensive success for Tennessee to keep pace long enough to get 10. If Buffalo gets to 11, I’d bet Tennessee, but I don’t have a side or total bet on the current number. However, the Titans ran the ball a lot less in their first game, and that’s notable. They have relied heavily on Henry, but his workload may be more manageable this year and his efficiency may not be as good. Tannehill attempted 33 passes last week despite the Titans leading most of the game. The Titans’ overall run percentage was significantly lower than in previous years. They ran the ball 48.8% of the time in 2019 (third most), 50.3% in 2020 (second) and 48.8% in 2021 (second). In Week 1 with a positive game scenario, that number dropped to just 43%. A more heavy-handed Titans approach may become more prevalent week-to-week this season. A possible negative game scenario with Buffalo leading will lead to more pass attempts by Tannehill, especially in the second half. Pick: Ryan Tannehill Over 31.5 Pass Attempts (-115) at BetMGM
